The death of MDP and the birth of Gayyoom’s Saviors!

Sad as it may sound, I have to say that MDP is a dead force in the current political situation. To use a metaphor, MDP was the hardworking donkey who brought us to the current junction of political freedom. It toiled and worked hard for us, but riders of this donkey (the party leaders) selfishly abused the party, which has taken MDP to the brink of irrelevance. I believe that Anni has to take the largest share of responsibility for, perhaps inadvertently, shattering the very foundations of the party. The incumbent president of the party, Dr. Munavvar, too has to take some share of this responsibility; but as said above, Anni has to take the largest share of responsibility.

MDP came into being to promote democracy and freedom of expression and equality and fairness. The first major election held under the auspices of the party was expected to be a beacon of transparency and democracy for us. Sadly though; it was rampant with nepotism, favoritism, strong handedness and shadiness. Anni used a pseudo-militia (aptly named: the party grassroots) to stretch the rules of the party; and in some cases even bend and abuse those rules, to gain an upper hand in the election.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m not a discontented supporter of Dr. Munavvar who suffered this loss at the hands of Anni, in the election. As I’ve mentioned in this blog, I didn’t even support Dr. Munvvar in the election. But it saddens me, and many neutrals like me, that Anni had the audacity to hijack and abuse the very party that he professed to die for. Anni perhaps calculated that his political cunningness could get him out of any consequences.

Has MDP shown Gayyoom how to conduct a free and fair election? Absolutely not! If anything, it was a carbon copy of what Gayyoom has been feeding down our throats for the past 30 odd years. Anni’s ways are frighteningly similar to the ways of Gayyoom. Like Gayyoom Anni too seems to favour nepotism. Like Gayyoom, Anni too seems to use some sort of pseudo-militia. Like Gayyoom, Anni too, doesn’t seem to have anything sacred which he wouldn’t trample, just to get his way. Democracy? Freedom? Fairness? No! Nothing is more sacred than winning. Winning at any cost! We should be wary of a leader who takes such a dangerous attitude.

Many reformists respected and trusted Anni. He has abused that trust and trampled it. Like Gayyoom, perhaps Anni too thinks that he knows what’s best for us and so he has the mandate to trample our most sacred things just to take us to the other side of the proverbial sea. Anni and Gayyoom and many other so-called leaders has shown that we are a nation abound with selfish and shortsighted leaders. No visionaries or true leaders of the people. Anni perhaps aspires to be the Che Guera or Mandela of Maldives but he should perhaps close his eyes and contemplate his actions over the past few years and judge himself. He would fall short of such lofty credentials by a long margin.

Even though the reform movement has made substantial advances, it is ironic that as the first multi-party election approaches, MDP (the so-called biggest opposition party) has become almost irrelevant and toothless. The so-called leaders of the party are mainly to blame for this. The situation has taken turns and twists, like a cruel comedy, whereby the two leading contenders in the upcoming election are emerging to be Gayyoom’s half brother (Yamin) and Gayyoom’s current Finance Minister (Gasim). Whether we want to accept it or not, it is a fact that these two heavyweights will polarize the public; and it is becoming increasingly likely that the next president could very well be either Gasim or Yamin. How cruel and ironic could that be?

Umar Naseer’s ID-Party and Ibra’s SD-Party and Adhaalath Party seem to be backing Gasim, while Yamin could forge some partnership with his half brother. Rumours are ripe that Gasim and Dr. Munavvar are joining forces to form a new party which will promote Gasim’s candidacy. Yamin is also in the process of registering his own party. These two new parties could brush aside MDP and DRP – which have hitherto been the two leading parties. It remains to be seen what sort of coalition or group that Dr. Hassan can assemble to contend with the ambitions of Yamin and Gasim.

It is safe to assume that Gasim and Yamin would both be sympathetic to Gayyoom and will try to shape the next government so as to protect the “legacy and family” of Gayyoom. Whoever wins the next election, it is becoming increasingly likely that Gayyoom may not be among the losers! His “great escape” seems to be working just fine! Gayyoom may rule this country even from his grave. That may perhaps be his greatest “personal legacy”!

Could Hassan Saeed and Anni do a deal with Yamin?

The news coming of MDP is that Anni has - contrary to the predictions of some analysts – agreed to become the running mate (Vice President) of a leader from the alliance. There are five major players in the alliance – i.e. MDP, Dr. Hassan Saeed’s association, Adhaalath Party, Umar Naseer’s IDP, and Ibra’s SDP. Of these five groups, MDP of course has the largest number of members and has the proper mandate to contest in the presidential election.

So, why then is Anni willing to recede and let another candidate run for president, while becoming such a candidate’s running mate? Umar Naseer has publicly said that this is a “political trick” of Anni. Umar didn’t explain how and why it is a “trick”. Maybe he thinks that anyone who isn’t cozying up to his “great leader” (Buruma Gasim) is playing tricks. Umar has of course, quite expectedly, proposed the name of his business partner (Buruma) as the “best” candidate to contest on behalf of the alliance. Ibra isn’t of course so forthcoming, even though it is obvious that Ibra’s party is backed by Buruma and his partner (Ilyas Ibrahim). Ibra says that his party will back a candidate that is elected from a primary held amongst the members of all the parties in the alliance. This is a delaying tactic, and Ibra and Umar very well know that Gasim has the necessary funds to “buy” the votes of such a primary.

A source within Adhaalath Party told me that the party’s Spokesman, Sheikh Shaheem, favours Buruma Gasim (who incidentally financed Shaheem’s studies for a PhD). It is also rumoured that Gasim gives a hefty monthly cheque for Adhaalath Party and hence some members in the party’s leadership (including Shaheem) backs Gasim for his “generous” help. But this source tells me that Adhaalth’s leader, Sheikh Hussain Rasheed and Sheikh Ilyas are against making Buruma the alliance candidate.

In short, it could be assumed that three of the five major players in the alliance favour Buruma Gasim. But this figure is quite misleading. MDP and Dr. Hassan Saeed’s association actually has more combined members than the combined total of members in the other three parties. It is also a fact that very few people will actually back IDP and SDP in a national referendum even though Adhaalath Party may acquire a significant vote.

It would be ironic if Adhaalath Party endorses Buruma Gasim. Being a basically Islamic party, Adhaalath would be hard-pressed to explain why they would back a candidate whose major earnings are from the business of liquor (alcohol), which is deemed an illegal trade by some Islamists. Adhaalath would also be hard-pressed to explain why they would back a candidate who probably uses and gives more “Ribaa” (bank interest) than any one individual in the country. Bank interest is considered to be Ribaa which is haraam (illegal) in Islamic Sharia.

Probably the best option for MDP would be to forget about SDP and IDP and try to come to an understanding with Dr. Hassan Saeed’s association and of course convince Adhaalath Party that their best interests does not lie with Buruma Gasim. If MDP and Adhaalath Party and Dr. Hassan Saeed come to a common understanding, then the arguments of IDP and SDP would become irrelevant.

It is obvious that if Gasim becomes President of this country he would most probably not allow any other person to even competitively run a small corner shop. He now controls all the fisheries zones and is a major player in the tourism industry and controls major shares in the petroleum market and cement market and cooking-gas market and shipping market. He is also into poultry farming and even education (Villa College). Gasim has become a business giant that is too cumbersome and could drag the economic development of the country if he gets to be president of this country. It is obvious that, despite claims to the contrary, Gasim would save Gayyoom from the public, if Gasim becomes president. It is Gayyoom and his brother-in-law Ilyas who made Gasim so rich. He cannot bite the hand that fed him for all these years.

It is widely believed that three of the biggest business groups in the country - Universal Group and Champa Group and Dhamas Group – are behind Hassan Saeed. This is understandable given the fact that none of the big businesses would want to be ruled by a person who is their direct competitor. Would Universal and Champa get a fair deal if Gasim becomes President? - Most probably not.

It would be a major coup for Hassan Saeed and Anni if they could bring Yamin and his PA group into the alliance-fold. Despite the fact that Yamin is a half-brother of Gayyoom, Yamin is unhappy with the close relationship between Buruma Gasim and Gayyoom. Yamin and Hassan Saeed are political foes but Yamin’s dislike for Gasim could override whatever disliking he may have for Hassan Saeed. So if Anni could become an intermediary, MDP and Hassan Saeed could bring Yamin into the fold of the alliance. This could become the most significant political coup of the current impasse.

There isn’t any faultless candidate. No one is perfect. Gayyoom has made sure of that. From the “damaged goods” that we have; the best possible choice would be to back a team of Dr. Hassan Saeed and Anni. For obvious reasons, Ibra and Umar Naseer and Gayyoom and even Dr. Munavvar will work against such a team; but there’s the possibility that Yamin may come to support such an alliance. Let’s think of the country and forget about individuals. Let’s look beyond the façade and rosy words. Let’s give Dr. Hassan Saeed and Anni a chance to take us out of the quagmire that Gayyoom consciously created to divide-and-rule us. @