The Dr. Waheed factor and Dr. Munawwar’s appointment as Gasim’s running mate!

An online poll by Jazeera Daily showed that Dr. Hassan Saeed won the recently held question-answer debate organized by the Information Ministry. Dr. Hassan got nearly half (42%0) of the votes while his closest rival, Anni, got 30%. A similar poll conducted by Dhi-FM also saw Dr. Hassan top the results, even though this poll was later nullified by Dhi-FM, due to some technical problem.

After the debate organized by the Information Ministry, among presidential candidates, many people were of the opinion that Dr. Hassan Saeed appeared to be the biggest threat to Gayyoom. At a press briefing after the debate Gayyoom had his harshest words directed at Dr. Hasssan. This too goes to show that Gayyoom now does not consider Gasim and Anni to be serious contenders.

The appointment of Dr. Munawwar as the running-mate of Buruma Gasim has obviously weakened Gasim’s candidacy. Gasim may have thought that he could get the bulk of votes from Addu Atoll by making an Adduan as his running-mate. But Gasim seems to have forgotten that Dr. Munawwar’s political track-record is full of failures. I bet that even Gayyoom can get more votes from Addu than Dr. Munawwar. Speaking to young and enthusiastic Adduans, I get the feeling that most Adduans now favour Dr. Hassan Saeed as the most viable candidate who can oust Gayyoom and bring a stable and prosperous leadership to the country.

Now that Gasim and Gayyoom have selected their running-mates, the biggest question now is who will be the running mates of Anni and Hassan! Just as Gasim made a mistake in selecting Munawwar as a running-mate, I believe that Gayyoom also made a mistake in selecting Thasmeen as a running-mate. Few Maldivians know Thasmeen and most people consider him to be a quiet man who doesn’t have the political clout needed for a race of this nature. Similarly it would be a mistake for Dr. Hassan to select the most obvious candidate (Dr. Shaheed) as his running-mate. I fully agree that Dr. Shaheed is a very capable leader but it would be a mistake for Dr. Hassan to appoint someone so close to him.

Maldivians still look for some kind of indefinable character in their leaders! Gayyoom had it – and still has a lot of that mysterious character. I believe that Dr. Waheed is someone who has some traits of such character and hence Dr. Waheed could be an excellent asset as a running-mate of either Dr. Hassan or Anni.

I still largely stick with my previous statement, that the three leaders who can make a difference right now are Anni, Ibra and Dr. Hassan. I would though add one more name to this fray. That’s the name of Dr. Waheed from Gaumee Ittihaadh Party. I know that many Maldivians are critical of Dr. Waheed for resigning from his posts too quickly; but at this critical juncture, Dr. Waheed could bring plenty of vigour to Dr. Hassan or Anni if either of them appoints Dr. Waheed as their running-mate.

In a future, democratic government – whoever wins the next election - I believe, the following people should get some senior position in the government:

1. Dr. Hassan Saeed
2. Mohamed Nasheed (Anni)
3. Ibrahim Ismail (Ibra)
4. Dr. Waheed
5. Dr. Shaheed

There are of course many other leaders and potential-leaders – some who are directly involved in the current struggle and some who are watching from a distance. All of them could be involved in a future government in varying degrees. There are people such as Dr. Farahanaz Faisal and Dr. Ugail and Dr. Riza – who could contribute immensely. But the above four leaders could play a pivotal role in saving us from the grip of Gayyoom and taking this country to a new level of prosperity, stability and excellence.

If these five leaders could not come to some sort of compromise, then we may very well see Gayyoom and Gasim top the election and those two names could go to a second round of voting, leaving the rest in limbo. That would be disastrous to the nation.

Villa Government!

I have a hard time answering the following questions! I would appreciate if the readers of this blog would help me in answering these questions:

1. If Gasim Ibrahim (Buruma Gasim) becomes President of this country, will he give preference to Villa Travels or MATTI?

2. If Gasim Ibrahim (Buruma Gasim) becomes President of this country, will he give preference to Villa Gas or STO Gas?

3. If Gasim Ibrahim (Buruma Gasim) becomes President of this country, will he give preference to Villa Fuels or STO Fuels?

4. . If Gasim Ibrahim (Buruma Gasim) becomes President of this country, will he give preference to Villa Cement or STO Cement?

5. . If Gasim Ibrahim (Buruma Gasim) becomes President of this country, will he give preference to Villa Fisheries or MIFCO?

6. . If Gasim Ibrahim (Buruma Gasim) becomes President of this country, will he give preference to Villa Air (TMA) or Island Aviation (Maldivian)?

7. . If Gasim Ibrahim (Buruma Gasim) becomes President of this country, will he give preference to Villa Airports or Maldives Airports Company?

8. . If Gasim Ibrahim (Buruma Gasim) becomes President of this country, will he give preference to Villa Shipping or MNSML?

9. Villa Money Transfer (Western Union) or Bank of Maldives?

10. . If Gasim Ibrahim (Buruma Gasim) becomes President of this country, will he give preference to Villa Launch Section or MTCC Launch Section?

11. . If Gasim Ibrahim (Buruma Gasim) becomes President of this country, will he give preference to Villa College or Maldives College?

Can Gasim Deliver the promises or was it just empty promises?

Speaking at the official inauguration of the Republican Party’s presidential campaign Friday night, the party’s nominee, Gasim made some bold promises to the Maldivian people. If elected to the post of the president in the upcoming election, scheduled to be held before 10th October, Gasim said that he will bring about incredible changes to the country!

Reading through the list of promises, I felt that Gasim was deliberately pressing some hot buttons! It was as if Gasim was blindly promising things that the people wanted to hear. Oil exploration, international-level hospital, one thousand apartments in Hulhumale per year, and so on! Let’s look a bit more closely at some of Gasim’s promises.

Gasim said that, as president, one of his first acts will be to form a Ministry of Islamic Affairs. I felt that this was just a bogus attempt to touch a raw nerve of the people. The current entity, Supreme Council for Islamic Affairs does exactly the same thing. So why do we need a Ministry for Islamic Affairs? Maybe Gasim wants to create this Ministerial post to reward Adhaalth Party for their loyalty to him! At a time when we need to trim the number of Ministries and cut down bureaucracy and cut costs by reducing the number of Ministers, why do we have to form a phony Ministry for Islamic Affairs? We can promote our Islamic values much better that Gayyoom did, but we can do that even with the current setup. So, I feel, there’s no need to form such a Ministry. The President of the Supreme Council for Islamic Affairs should be a qualified “Sheikh” and he should be independent from the government. If he’s a Minister than the president could easily influence the Supreme Council. So, dear Gasim, please dump this idea.

Gasim also said that a government headed by him, will create more cabinet-level posts for women. Believe me I’m not a sexist, but I do not support the setting of any quotas for women in cabinet and other senior government posts. If there are qualified women they will automatically come to such posts. Maldivian women have a very level playing field. It is a myth that our women need special help! So stop making political promises just to “buy” women’s votes!

Apart from these two ideas, Gasim’s other promises were praiseworthy. Those were excellent proposals, but the feasibility of such proposals in the given timeframes is perhaps questionable.

Take the example of developing five economic centers in the country within five years, with all those centers more developed than Male. While this is highly desirable, and while developing such centers is indeed feasible, it is doubtful if it could be done within five years. Personally, I’m all in favor of developing such economic centers.

Gasim also said that, in Hulhumale, he will build one thousand apartments per year. I don’t know what sort of feasibility studies Gasim have done before he made this promise, but I have a hard time believing that it is possible to build five thousand apartments in Hulhumale in five years and then develop five regions with greater development than Male, also in the same period of time. I wonder why Gasim didn’t deliver such lofty gifts to us when he was Finance Minister for three years. I just think that Gasim is randomly picking the figure of one thousand and just making a promise to build such and such an amount of apartments in Hulhumale without thinking about any feasibility.

Gasim also said that, if elected, his government would setup an “Economic Development Bank” in the country within two years of assuming office. Such a bank, said Gasim, would grant low-interest loans to businesses. This is an excellent proposal, but not exactly an original idea.

He also said that within the first year of his presidency he would setup a “Health Insurance Scheme” for all citizens (not just civil servants but “All citizens”). While this is also a commendable proposition, the time frame is doubtful.

Gasim also said that within two years of his presidency, he would setup an international-level hospital that can compete with hospitals in India, Sri Lanka and Thailand. He said that such a hospital in the Maldives would avoid the need for Maldivians to travel abroad to seek medical help. He also said that he will send 500 students per year to foreign universities to study for teaching degrees. Gasim also promised to increase the salaries of teachers – something that he couldn’t do when he was Finance Minister, despite some vocal demands from teachers.

Gasim also promised to close all entry points for drug traffickers within one month of assuming office, if he is elected. This is sweet music to many families with drugs-victims, but one wonders why Gasim didn’t advise Gayyoom on how to do that when Gasim was Finance Minister.

The three most striking proposals made by Gasim were regarding oil-exploration and taxes. He said that there are strong indications that there are oil wells under the seabed in the northern areas of the country and that he hopes to physically setup oil explorations rigs within three years of assuming office if he is elected.

Gasim also said that he will find the required finances for realizing his audacious proposals, through the introduction of a 15 percent corporate tax on the high-income businesses. He also spoke about the need to introduce a tax which he termed as “central sales tax” for the tourism industry. This is perhaps an alternative for the current “bed-rent” which taxes resorts regardless of whether the beds are occupied or not.

I have to give credit to Gasim for most of his proposals even though some of those proposals appear as if they are copied from the manifestos of other presidential candidates. Regardless of that, credit has to be given to Gasim for stating such things so clearly. I still have doubts if Gasim is talking about a realistic list or just some list that he picked from thin air! If he is elected and if he realizes these things, then I would be the first to acknowledge that Gasim is indeed a great magician. If that happens, I would definitely vote for Gasim if he runs for a second term!

Adhaalath’s Hypocrisy and Gasim’s idiotic presidential bid!

It’s is a sad day for democracy in the Maldives. As we are about to see the climax of the democratic struggle that we started about tow years ago, we are seeing signs that the so-called reformist “leaders” are selling their souls and lying though their teeth.

It is ironic that Adhaalth party, which portrays itself as the defenders of Islam, has joined a coalition with the newly formed Republican Party. Gasim’s Republican Party has the largest number of resort operators and sellers of alcohol in the country. They have the largest number of businessmen who use “Ribaa” which is forbidden in Islam. The question is, why has Adhaalath joined forces with a group of alcohol sellers and “Ribaa” eaters?

It is obvious that this unholy alliance will not help the democratization of this country. This so-called coalition will not help bring about a fruitful climax to our struggle for reform. If Adhaalath Party were a human being, it could be described as a soulless hypocrite. If it weren’t so tragic, it could even be hilarious to see Gasim and Monaza Naeem and “Sheikh” Hussain Rasheed holding hands! What a bunch of losers!

Speaking at the façade which was described as the Republican Party’s inaugural congress, one of its Deputy Leaders, Jabir, said that if his party comes to power, they would distribute free land in Hulhumale free of charge. I think someone should stuff some economic sense into Jabir’s head. This is probably the start of a series of election-lies that Gasim and his cohorts will try to sell to the unassuming people of this country. We should beware of such empty promises.

Until the last minute, I hoped that Adhaalth would not abandon the last remaining ethical remnants that they held. Now that they have abandoned the people of this country and taken the side of their benevolent financier, it is time to take a look at the remaining options in our democratic struggle.

It was a breath of fresh air that Ibra’s Social Liberal party (SDP) has ruled out any possibility of joining Gasim’s so-called coalition. The only hope now is that Anni, Hassan Saeed and Ibra could come to some sort of understanding. It isn’t a coincidence that the only three reformist leaders who seem to know what they are doing, are Anni, Hassan Saeed and Ibra.

If one listen’s to Hassan Saeed and Ibra and Anni, one could feel that these three people are aware of what democracy is and that they know how to solve our deeply ingrained economic and social problems. If Anni and Ibra and Hassan Saeed could somehow come to one platform, they would be a formidable force to reckon.

Only such an alliance of these three leaders could prevent Gayyoom from coming to power again. Only such an alliance e of these three leaders could prevent Gasim’s idiotic and selfish bid for presidency. As an ordinary member of MDP (who happens to be from Addu Atoll), I plead to Anni and Ibra and Hassan Saeed to overlook any differences, and come to a common platform to save us from the evil forces that are being arrayed against us.

If these three leaders could not come to such a platform, and if Gasim or Gayyoom wins the election; we should not listen to any of one of these three leaders. If such a scenario were to come to pass, I would personally label these three leaders and betrayers. Dear Hassan and Anni and Ibra! Now is the time to help us. We need your help. Please help this poor and suffering country of yours. Your motherland is calling for you. Please listen to its cry.

The last call for Anni, Hassan and Ibra!

It was a breath of fresh air that Ibra’s Social Liberal party (SDP) has ruled out any possibility of joining Gasim’s so-called coalition. The only hope now is that Anni, Hassan Saeed and Ibra could come to some sort of understanding. It isn’t a coincidence that the only three reformist leaders who seem to know what they are doing, are Anni, Hassan Saeed and Ibra.

If one listen’s to Hassan Saeed and Ibra and Anni, one could feel that these three people are aware of what democracy is and that they know how to solve our deeply ingrained economic and social problems. If Anni and Ibra and Hassan Saeed could somehow come to one platform, they would be a formidable force to reckon.

Only such an alliance of these three leaders could prevent Gayyoom from coming to power again. Only such an alliance e of these three leaders could prevent Gasim’s idiotic and selfish bid for presidency. As an ordinary member of MDP (who happens to be from Addu Atoll), I plead to Anni and Ibra and Hassan Saeed to overlook any differences, and come to a common platform to save us from the evil forces that are being arrayed against us.

If these three leaders could not come to such a platform, and if Gasim or Gayyoom wins the election; we should not listen to any of one of these three leaders. If such a scenario were to come to pass, I would personally label these three leaders and betrayers. Dear Hassan and Anni and Ibra! Now is the time to help us. We need your help. Please help this poor and suffering country of yours. Your motherland is calling for you. Please listen to its cry.

Six leaders or potential-heroes who could save this country from the grip of Gayyoom (and Yamin) and Gasim (and Ilyas)!

I have nothing against Buruma Gasim. In fact I think it’s a good thing that he has resigned from DRP. That has divided DRP, which will help the opposition. But I do not believe that Gasim is a sincere person whose sole aim is to serve the people. All his so-called generosity and philanthropy has a long-term agenda. This is my personal belief of course. But I believe that Gasim and his cohort (Ilyas Ibrahim) have had presidential ambitions for the past fifteen years. We all remember the episode when Gayyoom and Ilyas had a bitter fight about Ilyas’ presidential ambitions about 15 years ago.

Ilyas is of course Gayyoom’s brother-in-law. It is an ominous sign that despite Gasim’s professed presidential candidacy, his friend Ilyas is remaining quiet. Most of the businessmen (including Gasim) who are the backbone of the newly formed Republican Party are those who gained most from Gayyoom’s lopsided economic policies. Why – one wonders – would these people now ‘oppose’ Gayyoom? It is an open secret that Gayyoom has plenty of secret ammunition that he could use against Gasim if Gayyoom so desires. So, why isn’t Gayyoom using those ammunitions to derail Gasim’s presidential bid?

My guess is that Gasim’s presidential bid has Gayyoom’s blessings. It’s all a drama setup by the old dictator to con the people of Maldives. Now, Gasim is distributing “gifts” to the willing people of Maldives, to acquire support for his presidential bid. Some are getting free cars while others are getting free motorcycles. Some are getting hundreds of thousands in cash while others may get even millions. Gasim may be the so-called “richest man” in the country but it is an open secret that his debts are now running at millions of dollars. He is flying on credit! So, how is he managing to find all these millions to fund his presidential bid?

We have to be very careful about Gayyoom’s actions towards Gasim and the actions of Ilyas and of course the drama that Gayyoom and Gasim and Ilyas and Yamin are playing. It’s all a game which is intended to con us – the unassuming people of this country.

If Gasim and his cohorts are spending as if money is disposable napkins, it is safe to assume that they would have to some how get that money back from the country. Whatever cars and millions that they are distributing for the campaign, they have to get their investment back. Where will that come from? Of course the presidency will make sure that it all doesn’t go to waste!

About four days ago three of the smaller parties - Adhaalath Party, Islamic Democratic Party and Maldives National Congress – held discussions to come to a consensus as to which candidate they will back. One of the candidates which they are considering is Dr. Hassan Saeed. They have not come to a final decision yet. I think MDP and Ibra’s Social Democratic Party and Dr. Hassan Saeed should join forces with the above mentioned three parties, to become a credible force against DRP and the Republican Party.

Gasim and his businessman-friends may say that they oppose Gayyoom but no sane person should believe them. It’s all a drama and the only way that this country can escape from the claws of this drama is to say “no” to Gayyoom and Gasim!

There are six leaders or potential-heroes who could save this country form the grip of Gayyoom (and Yamin) and Gasim (and Ilyas)! Who are those six leaders or potential-heroes?

It’s Dr. Hassan Saeed, Mohamed Nasheed (Anni), Ibrahim Ismail (Ibra), and Sheikh Hussain Rasheed of Adhaalath, Umar Naseer of IDP and Naeem of Maldives National Congress. These six opposition figures should unite around a common cause - which is to topple the autocracy of Gayyoom and prevent the elitist Republican Party from taking power. These six leaders and their respective parties or associations should stop vilifying each other. They should overcome their differences and unite for this common cause. Once this country is safely in a calm harbor – free from Gayyoom and his dramas – then we could go for a competitive and fair election, free from bribery and dramas.

The best service that these opposition figures could do to their mother nation would be to come to some sort of consensus, and unite to topple Gayyoom and show the dark side of Gayyoom and Gasim to the electorate.

To whom should we vote for?

There could very well be at least seven contenders for the post of the president, when the first multiparty elections come up (hopefully) in October this year. But only four of those candidates could be described as serious contenders. Many believe that MDP’s Nasheed, DRP’s Gayyoom, Hassan Saeed and Republican Party’s Gasim are the four serious contenders for the post of the presidency.

Being the so-called ‘biggest opposition party’, MDP of course has grassroots support that emanates from its vocal criticisms of the current regime. But the party has lost a number of its supporters, and leadership of the party has changed many times over a relatively short period of time. This has obviously weakened the party to some extent. The fact that MDP’s presidential candidate, Nasheed, has postponed the announcement of his running mate is seen by some critics as his inability to muster serious consensus among the party supporters. A number of elected MPs have resigned from the party, while MDP’s president, Dr. Munavvar, has also resigned this month, while openly criticizing the leadership of the party.

Does this mean that MDP is dead and buried? I don’t think so. But I do think that MDP cannot win this current presidential election – at least not in the first round. In fact I have a feeling that even Anni and his associates know that he doesn’t have a credible chance of winning the election. They would feel satisfied if they can be in the top two. My feeling is that Anni and his team are laying the foundations for the 2013 election. They would feel it as a surprise bonus if they can win the 2008 election against all odds, but they feel that the next government would be a transitional one which would have to wash all the dirt laundry that Gayyoom has failed to wash!

As for DRP, my feeling is that Gayyoom will use all the resources and all the trickery at his disposal to win the election. But I do not think that he will remain to complete the five-year term even if he gets elected. He would handover the reigns to his deputy (Thasmeen), some time in the middle of the presidential term. He will cite health reasons, resign, migrate to a foreign country and let his younger brother Yamin rule, while using Thasmeen as a proxy.

As for Gasim, there are still many people who feel that Gasim is a saviour and a leader of the reform movement. It is a fact that Gasim spent from his pocket to lay the foundations of the reform movement. It is an open secret that he helped MDP in its infancy and even helped many reformist websites and magazines that criticised Gayyoom. But it is also a fact that Gasim squeezed the collective throats of the reformists when he joined Gayyoom’s party (DRP) when he had an open invitation to join MDP. There are many who believe that if Gasim had not sided with DRP, Gayyoom may not have lasted even this long. Whatever help that Gasim has covertly given to the reform movement, he has done an equivalent amount of damage to the movement as well.

Many reformists see Gasim as a weak personality who cosied up to the dictator at the most critical junctures, and weakened the reform movement at the most critical times. With the establishment of the Republican Party, Gasim has resigned from Gayyoom’s cabinet and left DRP. Gasim is now the presidential candidate of the Republican Party. Most of the senior figures in the Republican Party are representatives of the big businesses, including Gasim himself, who is said to be one of the richest men in the country. Many reformists see this as a threat to small businesses.

They say that Gasim and his business allies control the biggest chunk of our tourism, aviation, fisheries, cooking gas, cement and much more. One reformist said: “There’s Villa Hotels, Villa Travels, Villa Fisheries, Villa Gas, Villa Cement, Villa College and so on. The only missing link is a Villa Government!”

But other reformists think that Gasim is the only candidate who can beat Gayyoom and dislodge the old dictator from his manic grip on power. For this reason, some reformists are willing to give Gasim a single term in office, just to dislodge Gayyoom. Those who argue this way say that the next government (whoever wins) would be a transitional one and that even Gasim wouldn’t be able to win a second term in office. But there’s no guarantee of that. If he does win, he could stay for 10 years. Ten years is a long time, and within that period, many of Gasim’s business allies could ‘recover’ their investments in the political process! Those who argue against Gasim, say that it would be a risky gamble to handover power to Gasim and his business allies.

The fourth candidate with a serious chance to win the election is Dr. Hassan Saeed. Of the four serious challengers, Dr. Hassan is perhaps the candidate with the least amount of unnecessary baggage. Of course there’s the case of the book that he coauthored, and also his hard-line stand against some reformist when he was Gayyoom’s attorney general. Though Dr. Hassan himself is not a businessman, he too has some big businesses that are backing him. It is an open secret that Universal group, and many other businesses that are fearful of a Gasim-led government, are backing Dr. Hassan to prevent Gasim from acquiring power.

But unlike Gasim, Dr. Hassan himself is not a businessman and even though his financial backers would support his presidential bid, it is not assumed that those backers would seek‘compensation’ from Dr. Hassan if he becomes president.

Dr. Hassan is also seen by many, to be more mature and stable and experiences to lead the country. Of the four serious contenders, Gayyoom is seen as an old and senile man who has passed his prime. Gayyoom is also seen as a corrupt dictator who has overstayed his welcome. Anni is seen as too immature and reactionary, even though many believe that Anni could be a future leader if he stays pragmatic. Gasim is seen by many to be a business leader who has a hidden agenda. Another thing against Gasim is that many still doubt that he is against Gayyoom. If Gayyoom himself doesn’t win the election, he would rather that Gasim wins it, rather than see Anni or Hassan Saeed win it.

For this reason, many reformists argue that the best bet at this critical time is to dislodge Gayyoom and prevent Gasim from acquiring power, by supporting Dr. Hassan Saeed. Such reformists argue that if Anni and his reform-minded supporters wish to make this country safe, they should support Dr. Hassan’s presidential bid by forming some sort of coalition. These reformists argue that even if Dr. Hassan has to make Anni his running mate, it would be worth, just to prevent Gayyoom and Gasim from taking this country away from the ordinary citizens. Anni and Dr. Hassan of course have many political differences; but visionary leaders are those who are willing to compromise and overlook differences, just to achieve the idealistic goals.

It is a safe bet to say that the country would have a new president before the end of this year. Many pragmatic reformists argue that the future of this country is now in the hands of Dr. Hassan and Anni. If they can’t come to a compromise, then we are again doomed for the next 10 years.