Could Hassan Saeed and Anni do a deal with Yamin?

The news coming of MDP is that Anni has - contrary to the predictions of some analysts – agreed to become the running mate (Vice President) of a leader from the alliance. There are five major players in the alliance – i.e. MDP, Dr. Hassan Saeed’s association, Adhaalath Party, Umar Naseer’s IDP, and Ibra’s SDP. Of these five groups, MDP of course has the largest number of members and has the proper mandate to contest in the presidential election.

So, why then is Anni willing to recede and let another candidate run for president, while becoming such a candidate’s running mate? Umar Naseer has publicly said that this is a “political trick” of Anni. Umar didn’t explain how and why it is a “trick”. Maybe he thinks that anyone who isn’t cozying up to his “great leader” (Buruma Gasim) is playing tricks. Umar has of course, quite expectedly, proposed the name of his business partner (Buruma) as the “best” candidate to contest on behalf of the alliance. Ibra isn’t of course so forthcoming, even though it is obvious that Ibra’s party is backed by Buruma and his partner (Ilyas Ibrahim). Ibra says that his party will back a candidate that is elected from a primary held amongst the members of all the parties in the alliance. This is a delaying tactic, and Ibra and Umar very well know that Gasim has the necessary funds to “buy” the votes of such a primary.

A source within Adhaalath Party told me that the party’s Spokesman, Sheikh Shaheem, favours Buruma Gasim (who incidentally financed Shaheem’s studies for a PhD). It is also rumoured that Gasim gives a hefty monthly cheque for Adhaalath Party and hence some members in the party’s leadership (including Shaheem) backs Gasim for his “generous” help. But this source tells me that Adhaalth’s leader, Sheikh Hussain Rasheed and Sheikh Ilyas are against making Buruma the alliance candidate.

In short, it could be assumed that three of the five major players in the alliance favour Buruma Gasim. But this figure is quite misleading. MDP and Dr. Hassan Saeed’s association actually has more combined members than the combined total of members in the other three parties. It is also a fact that very few people will actually back IDP and SDP in a national referendum even though Adhaalath Party may acquire a significant vote.

It would be ironic if Adhaalath Party endorses Buruma Gasim. Being a basically Islamic party, Adhaalath would be hard-pressed to explain why they would back a candidate whose major earnings are from the business of liquor (alcohol), which is deemed an illegal trade by some Islamists. Adhaalath would also be hard-pressed to explain why they would back a candidate who probably uses and gives more “Ribaa” (bank interest) than any one individual in the country. Bank interest is considered to be Ribaa which is haraam (illegal) in Islamic Sharia.

Probably the best option for MDP would be to forget about SDP and IDP and try to come to an understanding with Dr. Hassan Saeed’s association and of course convince Adhaalath Party that their best interests does not lie with Buruma Gasim. If MDP and Adhaalath Party and Dr. Hassan Saeed come to a common understanding, then the arguments of IDP and SDP would become irrelevant.

It is obvious that if Gasim becomes President of this country he would most probably not allow any other person to even competitively run a small corner shop. He now controls all the fisheries zones and is a major player in the tourism industry and controls major shares in the petroleum market and cement market and cooking-gas market and shipping market. He is also into poultry farming and even education (Villa College). Gasim has become a business giant that is too cumbersome and could drag the economic development of the country if he gets to be president of this country. It is obvious that, despite claims to the contrary, Gasim would save Gayyoom from the public, if Gasim becomes president. It is Gayyoom and his brother-in-law Ilyas who made Gasim so rich. He cannot bite the hand that fed him for all these years.

It is widely believed that three of the biggest business groups in the country - Universal Group and Champa Group and Dhamas Group – are behind Hassan Saeed. This is understandable given the fact that none of the big businesses would want to be ruled by a person who is their direct competitor. Would Universal and Champa get a fair deal if Gasim becomes President? - Most probably not.

It would be a major coup for Hassan Saeed and Anni if they could bring Yamin and his PA group into the alliance-fold. Despite the fact that Yamin is a half-brother of Gayyoom, Yamin is unhappy with the close relationship between Buruma Gasim and Gayyoom. Yamin and Hassan Saeed are political foes but Yamin’s dislike for Gasim could override whatever disliking he may have for Hassan Saeed. So if Anni could become an intermediary, MDP and Hassan Saeed could bring Yamin into the fold of the alliance. This could become the most significant political coup of the current impasse.

There isn’t any faultless candidate. No one is perfect. Gayyoom has made sure of that. From the “damaged goods” that we have; the best possible choice would be to back a team of Dr. Hassan Saeed and Anni. For obvious reasons, Ibra and Umar Naseer and Gayyoom and even Dr. Munavvar will work against such a team; but there’s the possibility that Yamin may come to support such an alliance. Let’s think of the country and forget about individuals. Let’s look beyond the façade and rosy words. Let’s give Dr. Hassan Saeed and Anni a chance to take us out of the quagmire that Gayyoom consciously created to divide-and-rule us. @