To whom should we vote for?

There could very well be at least seven contenders for the post of the president, when the first multiparty elections come up (hopefully) in October this year. But only four of those candidates could be described as serious contenders. Many believe that MDP’s Nasheed, DRP’s Gayyoom, Hassan Saeed and Republican Party’s Gasim are the four serious contenders for the post of the presidency.

Being the so-called ‘biggest opposition party’, MDP of course has grassroots support that emanates from its vocal criticisms of the current regime. But the party has lost a number of its supporters, and leadership of the party has changed many times over a relatively short period of time. This has obviously weakened the party to some extent. The fact that MDP’s presidential candidate, Nasheed, has postponed the announcement of his running mate is seen by some critics as his inability to muster serious consensus among the party supporters. A number of elected MPs have resigned from the party, while MDP’s president, Dr. Munavvar, has also resigned this month, while openly criticizing the leadership of the party.

Does this mean that MDP is dead and buried? I don’t think so. But I do think that MDP cannot win this current presidential election – at least not in the first round. In fact I have a feeling that even Anni and his associates know that he doesn’t have a credible chance of winning the election. They would feel satisfied if they can be in the top two. My feeling is that Anni and his team are laying the foundations for the 2013 election. They would feel it as a surprise bonus if they can win the 2008 election against all odds, but they feel that the next government would be a transitional one which would have to wash all the dirt laundry that Gayyoom has failed to wash!

As for DRP, my feeling is that Gayyoom will use all the resources and all the trickery at his disposal to win the election. But I do not think that he will remain to complete the five-year term even if he gets elected. He would handover the reigns to his deputy (Thasmeen), some time in the middle of the presidential term. He will cite health reasons, resign, migrate to a foreign country and let his younger brother Yamin rule, while using Thasmeen as a proxy.

As for Gasim, there are still many people who feel that Gasim is a saviour and a leader of the reform movement. It is a fact that Gasim spent from his pocket to lay the foundations of the reform movement. It is an open secret that he helped MDP in its infancy and even helped many reformist websites and magazines that criticised Gayyoom. But it is also a fact that Gasim squeezed the collective throats of the reformists when he joined Gayyoom’s party (DRP) when he had an open invitation to join MDP. There are many who believe that if Gasim had not sided with DRP, Gayyoom may not have lasted even this long. Whatever help that Gasim has covertly given to the reform movement, he has done an equivalent amount of damage to the movement as well.

Many reformists see Gasim as a weak personality who cosied up to the dictator at the most critical junctures, and weakened the reform movement at the most critical times. With the establishment of the Republican Party, Gasim has resigned from Gayyoom’s cabinet and left DRP. Gasim is now the presidential candidate of the Republican Party. Most of the senior figures in the Republican Party are representatives of the big businesses, including Gasim himself, who is said to be one of the richest men in the country. Many reformists see this as a threat to small businesses.

They say that Gasim and his business allies control the biggest chunk of our tourism, aviation, fisheries, cooking gas, cement and much more. One reformist said: “There’s Villa Hotels, Villa Travels, Villa Fisheries, Villa Gas, Villa Cement, Villa College and so on. The only missing link is a Villa Government!”

But other reformists think that Gasim is the only candidate who can beat Gayyoom and dislodge the old dictator from his manic grip on power. For this reason, some reformists are willing to give Gasim a single term in office, just to dislodge Gayyoom. Those who argue this way say that the next government (whoever wins) would be a transitional one and that even Gasim wouldn’t be able to win a second term in office. But there’s no guarantee of that. If he does win, he could stay for 10 years. Ten years is a long time, and within that period, many of Gasim’s business allies could ‘recover’ their investments in the political process! Those who argue against Gasim, say that it would be a risky gamble to handover power to Gasim and his business allies.

The fourth candidate with a serious chance to win the election is Dr. Hassan Saeed. Of the four serious challengers, Dr. Hassan is perhaps the candidate with the least amount of unnecessary baggage. Of course there’s the case of the book that he coauthored, and also his hard-line stand against some reformist when he was Gayyoom’s attorney general. Though Dr. Hassan himself is not a businessman, he too has some big businesses that are backing him. It is an open secret that Universal group, and many other businesses that are fearful of a Gasim-led government, are backing Dr. Hassan to prevent Gasim from acquiring power.

But unlike Gasim, Dr. Hassan himself is not a businessman and even though his financial backers would support his presidential bid, it is not assumed that those backers would seek‘compensation’ from Dr. Hassan if he becomes president.

Dr. Hassan is also seen by many, to be more mature and stable and experiences to lead the country. Of the four serious contenders, Gayyoom is seen as an old and senile man who has passed his prime. Gayyoom is also seen as a corrupt dictator who has overstayed his welcome. Anni is seen as too immature and reactionary, even though many believe that Anni could be a future leader if he stays pragmatic. Gasim is seen by many to be a business leader who has a hidden agenda. Another thing against Gasim is that many still doubt that he is against Gayyoom. If Gayyoom himself doesn’t win the election, he would rather that Gasim wins it, rather than see Anni or Hassan Saeed win it.

For this reason, many reformists argue that the best bet at this critical time is to dislodge Gayyoom and prevent Gasim from acquiring power, by supporting Dr. Hassan Saeed. Such reformists argue that if Anni and his reform-minded supporters wish to make this country safe, they should support Dr. Hassan’s presidential bid by forming some sort of coalition. These reformists argue that even if Dr. Hassan has to make Anni his running mate, it would be worth, just to prevent Gayyoom and Gasim from taking this country away from the ordinary citizens. Anni and Dr. Hassan of course have many political differences; but visionary leaders are those who are willing to compromise and overlook differences, just to achieve the idealistic goals.

It is a safe bet to say that the country would have a new president before the end of this year. Many pragmatic reformists argue that the future of this country is now in the hands of Dr. Hassan and Anni. If they can’t come to a compromise, then we are again doomed for the next 10 years.