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If Jumhooree Party’s presidential candidate Gasim Ibrahim had any sense of the reality, he would realize that his party has no chance of winning the presidential election in the first round of voting. Gasim should know that if the voting goes for a second round he would either be out of the top two and hence out of contention, or even if he goes for the second round he would most likely lose. I believe that Gasim’s priority now should not be winning the presidency for himself but to overcome the immense risk to his multimillion dollar business posed by the appointment of his old-foe (Yamin) as the Minister of Tourism.
It is common knowledge that Yamin considers Gasim to be his enemy number one. Hence, as Minister of Tourism, Yamin could make life difficult for Gasim in three areas. Namely, the MTDC-share issue, and the issue of the undeveloped resort islands that Gasim has. As Tourism and Aviations Minister, Yamin could also make tough regulations to squeeze Gasim’s airline, TMA. It is rumoured that Yamin could ask all undeveloped resort islands to pay liquidation damages to the state, for not opening the island resorts on the due dates. This could run up to millions of dollars for Gasim since he has about five islands that are under construction.
The appointment of Yamin as Tourism Minister at this transitional period, when the election is only about a week away, shows that Gayyoom is not about to let go of his hold on power that easily. Yamin could very well be the last and strongest card that Gayyoom has played in this political crisis.
All this shows that the best thing that Gasim can do for the nation, and for himself too, would be to withdraw form the presidential race and form a coalition with either MDP or Dr. Hassan Saeed. If Gasim and his Jumhooree Party forms a coalition with either of the above two candidates, it is very likely that such a coalition would win the election. Under such a coalition, it would be either Dr. Hassan or Anni who would run as the coalition candidate. Under the coalition agreement, Jumhooree Party would of course get assurances for a certain share of appointments for the Cabinet and other senior government posts.
Such a coalition between Gasim and either Anni or Hassan could be a godsend for the reform movement which seeks to dislodge Gayyoom’s 30-year-old grip on power. It would be folly and the biggest mistake of his life if Gasim runs for presidency as he is doing now. By doing so he is increasing Gayyoom’s chances of winning. If Gayyoom and Yamin win the election Gasim may as well sell his properties and migrate to a foreign country. If Gasim and his Jumhooree Party has any sense they will use this advise and form such a coalition for the sake of the nation and the people – and perhaps more importantly for Gasim himself!